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Last checked: Oct 15, 2026, 5:11 PM EDT

Climate and Earth-system monitoring from named official products. Snapshot values are dated and sourced. Nothing here is a forecast.

Snapshot

Alert
El Niño Advisory
Issued
Oct 8, 2026
September Niño-3.4
+2.1°C
Outlook
Strong to very strong El Niño likely through January to March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance); 83% chance October to December exceeds every El Niño since 1950 (CPC language)
Next discussion
Nov 12, 2026
Source
NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Notes

  • official data (USGS; GDACS)

    Two strong quakes, M6.7 and M6.8, hit the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge seven hours apart

    Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge · 0.409°S 19.431°W (USGS, M6.8)

    USGS

    USGS: M6.7 at 05:44 UTC (1:44 AM ET) Oct 13 near 0.169N 19.860W, and M6.8 at 12:23 UTC (8:23 AM ET) near 0.409S 19.431W, both about 10 km deep on the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Both PAGER green. GDACS rates the M6.8 low humanitarian impact with a 0 m tsunami alert.

  • official data (USGS; SINAPROC via TVN; UN OCHA Sitrep 3; PAHO/WHO)

    Panama's M7.7 quake: 2,164 families affected, 506 lost their homes, no deaths, and aftershocks that could run for weeks

    Azuero Peninsula, Panama · 7.587°N 80.769°W (USGS epicenter)

    USGS

    USGS: M7.7 at 17:56 UTC (12:56 PM ET) Oct 9 near 7.587N 80.769W, depth 12.6 km, 12 km WSW of Pitaloza Arriba on the Azuero Peninsula; PAGER orange. SINAPROC Communique No. 9 (to 10 PM local Oct 12): 2,164 families, 7,480 people, affected in 9 provinces; 506 families lost their homes. OCHA Sitrep 3 (Oct 12): 27 injured, no deaths or missing, 619 schools and 29 health facilities affected, 16 bridges damaged, more than 800 people in shelters. Aftershocks include USGS M6.6 Oct 9 and M6.1 Oct 12. The University of Panama's geosciences institute says aftershocks could continue for weeks.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory 10)

    Hurricane Trudy holds at 90 mph as Mexico issues a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch

    Eastern Pacific · 13.7°N 101.7°W (Adv 10) · ~250 mi SSW of Acapulco, Mexico

    NHC Advisory 10

    NHC Advisory 10 (3 PM CST / 5 PM EDT Thu Oct 15): Hurricane Trudy has 90 mph winds and 978 mb pressure near 13.7N 101.7W, about 250 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, moving north-northwest at 6 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo, Mexico, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast north of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. NHC forecasts rapid intensification to resume tonight, a major hurricane Friday or Friday night, and the center approaching the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC Tropical Storm Simon Public Advisory 34)

    Tropical Storm Simon weakens to 50 mph and drifts off Mexico, with no watches or warnings

    Eastern Pacific · 19.3°N 108.2°W (Adv 34) · ~270 mi SSE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

    NHC Advisory 34

    NHC Advisory 34 (2 PM MST / 5 PM EDT Thu Oct 15): Tropical Storm Simon has 50 mph winds and 999 mb pressure near 19.3N 108.2W, about 270 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, moving northwest near 1 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings. NHC expects a faster northwest motion from Friday through the weekend and gradual weakening, with Simon forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by this weekend. Rain of 1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches, is forecast over parts of Baja California Sur through early Saturday.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC Public Advisories 12A to 14A; NOAA / WPC Post-Tropical Advisory 20, final)

    Isaias is gone: the hurricane peaked at 120 mph, came ashore in the western Florida Panhandle, and dissipated over the Appalachians

    Southern Gulf · 24.4°N 89.3°W (Adv 9) · ~215 mi N of Progreso, Mexico · ~325 mi S of the mouth of the Mississippi River

    NHC Advisory 9

    Closing update. NHC put Isaias at its peak of 120 mph and 959 mb at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 9, about 145 mi south of Pensacola. At 700 PM CDT it was nearing landfall in the western Florida Panhandle at 110 mph, 967 mb; by 1000 PM CDT it was moving over the western Panhandle at 90 mph. It weakened over Alabama to 35 mph by 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10. The Weather Prediction Center issued its last advisory (Adv 20) at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias near 37.5N 84.0W, 25 mph, 1010 mb, expected to dissipate over West Virginia that evening.

  • official data (JMA / RSMC Tokyo, 0900 UTC Oct 5)

    Typhoon Nolo deepens to 950 hPa west of the Date Line, with Japan’s forecast weakening it by midweek

    Western North Pacific, west of the Date Line · 25.5°N 177.0°E (JMA, 0900 UTC Oct 5)

    JMA typhoon information

    Japan Meteorological Agency (RSMC Tokyo) analysis for 0900 UTC Oct 5 (5 AM ET): Typhoon Nolo (T2628) is near 25.5N 177.0E, 950 hPa, maximum sustained winds 95 kt (10-minute average), gusts 135 kt, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. That is 10 hPa deeper and 5 kt stronger than JMA’s first analysis at 0000 UTC. JMA keeps it at 95 kt for the next 12 hours, then weakens it to 65 kt by 0600 UTC Oct 7 and a severe tropical storm by Oct 8, over open ocean as it moves west.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Adv 46)

    Tropical Storm Rachel, now 70 mph, is forecast to turn toward northern Baja California and Southern California this weekend

    Eastern North Pacific · 22.1°N 124.2°W (Adv 46) · ~915 mi W of the southern tip of Baja California

    NHC Advisory 46

    NHC Advisory 46 (8 AM PDT / 11 AM EDT Thu Oct 8): Tropical Storm Rachel has 70 mph winds and 985 mb pressure near 22.1N 124.2W, about 915 mi west of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 7 mph. No coastal watches or warnings yet, but NHC says a Tropical Storm Watch could be needed for parts of extreme northern Baja California, the northern Gulf of California and Southern California by tonight. A sharp turn northeast is forecast Saturday, bringing Rachel near northern Baja California late Saturday, still at tropical storm strength, with heavy rain, flash flooding risk and dangerous surf.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC Adv 57, last advisory · JMA RSMC Tokyo)

    Nolo crosses the Date Line as a Category 3 and Japan’s weather agency takes over the advisories

    Western North Pacific, just west of the Date Line · 24.8°N 179.4°E (JMA, 0000 UTC Oct 5)

    NHC Advisory 57

    NHC issued its last advisory on Nolo at 11 AM HST (5 PM ET) Sun Oct 4: Advisory 57 put the Category 3 hurricane at 115 mph and 959 mb on the International Date Line, 24.2N 180.0, about 395 mi WSW of Lisianski Island, moving west at 17 mph. Advisories now come from RSMC Tokyo (the Japan Meteorological Agency), which at 0000 UTC Oct 5 (8 PM ET) placed Typhoon Nolo at 24.8N 179.4E, 960 hPa, moving west. No coastal watches or warnings; large swell will keep washing over low atolls from Maro Reef to Lisianski Island.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC Adv 32)

    Rachel weakens to 100 mph far off Baja California as dry air reaches its core

    Eastern North Pacific · 20.2°N 114.8°W (Adv 32) · ~365 mi WSW of the southern tip of Baja California

    NHC Advisory 32

    NHC Advisory 32 (8 PM MST / 11 PM ET Sun Oct 4): Hurricane Rachel has 100 mph winds and 967 mb pressure, near 20.2N 114.8W, about 365 mi WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 7 mph. No coastal watches or warnings. NHC says the eye has filled in and dry air appears to have reached the core; slow weakening is expected from Monday. Swells will keep causing life-threatening surf and rip currents on the Baja California coast for the next couple of days.

  • official data (NOAA / CPHC Adv 56)

    Nolo strengthens again to 115 mph, Category 3, as it nears the International Date Line

    Central North Pacific · 23.8°N 178.5°W (Adv 56) · ~325 mi WSW of Lisianski Island

    CPHC Advisory 56

    CPHC Advisory 56 (5 AM HST / 11 AM ET Sun Oct 4): Hurricane Nolo is a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds and 963 mb pressure, near 23.8N 178.5W, about 325 mi WSW of Lisianski Island, moving west at 18 mph. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. It should cross the International Date Line later today Hawaii time; more strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, then weakening from about midweek. Large swell is likely to wash over low atolls from Maro Reef to Lisianski Island.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC Adv 30)

    Rachel holds at 105 mph far off Baja California; forecasters expect it to weaken from Monday

    Eastern North Pacific · 20.2°N 113.8°W (Adv 30) · ~310 mi SW of the southern tip of Baja California

    NHC Advisory 30

    NHC Advisory 30 (8 AM MST / 11 AM ET Sun Oct 4): Hurricane Rachel has 105 mph winds and 965 mb pressure, near 20.2N 113.8W, about 310 mi SW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 6 mph. No coastal watches or warnings. A turn west is expected, and slow weakening from Monday as it moves over cooler water and into drier air. Swells will keep causing life-threatening surf and rip currents on the Baja California coast through Monday.

  • official (Thailand DDPM) via The Nation and Bangkok Post

    Bangkok floods: 3.26 million people affected in Thailand, four deaths in the capital, and where the 40 figure comes from

    Thailand · Bangkok and 27 provinces, worst rises in the Central region (Suphan Buri, Ayutthaya, Pathum Thani) and Chachoengsao in the East

    The Nation

    Thailand's disaster agency (DDPM) counted 3,262,676 people in 1,171,165 households affected by flooding in 27 provinces and Bangkok as of 6 AM local time on Oct 4. For Bangkok it lists 329,000 affected households and four deaths. The Guardian reported about 40 flood-related deaths, citing the government, without breaking that figure down by area. Bangkok kept its disaster designation in 29 of its 50 districts after lifting it in 21 on Sep 29. The Thai Meteorological Department forecasts more heavy rain from Oct 4 to 7.

  • official (NWS active alerts)

    October heat grips California: Death Valley near 110 with lows near 85, Southern California under Extreme Heat Warnings

    California · Death Valley National Park (below 2,000 ft) · Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, Orange, San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino counties · Bay Area and Central Valley under advisories

    NWS alerts

    As of 11:05 AM PDT Oct 4, NWS Las Vegas has an Extreme Heat Warning for Death Valley National Park below 2,000 feet: highs near 110°F and overnight lows around 85°F from 11 AM Oct 4 to 8 PM PDT Friday Oct 9 (11 PM EDT). NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard and NWS San Diego have Extreme Heat Warnings until 8 PM PDT Thursday Oct 8 for coast, valleys and mountains from Santa Barbara County to San Diego County, with highs up to 106°F in the Los Angeles and Ventura valleys. Heat Advisories cover the Bay Area, the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys and the Central Coast.

  • official data (NOAA / CPHC Adv 52A)

    Nolo becomes a major hurricane: 115 mph, Category 3, as it crosses Papahānaumokuākea

    Central North Pacific · 23.2°N 172.0°W (Adv 52A) · ~175 mi SSW of Maro Reef · ~235 mi SSE of Lisianski Island · Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument

    CPHC Advisory 52A

    CPHC Intermediate Advisory 52A (800 AM HST / 2 PM ET Sat Oct 3): Hurricane Nolo is a Category 3 major hurricane, 115 mph, 959 mb, near 23.2N 172.0W, about 175 mi SSW of Maro Reef, moving west at 16 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning covers the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Maro Reef to Lisianski Island. Forecast (Discussion 52): further strengthening, possibly to Category 4 in about 36 hours, a Date Line crossing by Sunday midday Hawaii time, then gradual weakening from Monday. Next complete advisory 11 AM HST (5 PM ET).

  • official data (NOAA / NHC)

    Rachel: 105 mph and strengthening: NHC forecasts a major hurricane by Friday, heading out to sea

    Eastern Pacific · 19.6°N 109.6°W (Adv 18) · ~230 mi S of the southern tip of Baja California

    NHC Adv 18

    NHC Adv 18 (800 AM MST / 11 AM ET Thu Oct 1): Hurricane Rachel, Category 2, near 19.6N 109.6W · 105 mph · 964 mb · WNW 6 mph · ~230 mi S of the southern tip of Baja California. Discussion 18 forecasts 115 mph, a major hurricane, by 8 AM ET Friday and a 120 mph peak Friday evening, on a track west into the open Pacific. No coastal watches or warnings; dangerous surf on west-central Mexico and Baja. Next advisory 5 PM ET.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC)

    Hurricane Rachel: 100 mph and strengthening: NHC expects a major hurricane within a couple of days

    Eastern Pacific · 19.4°N 109.3°W (Adv 17) · ~245 mi S of Cabo San Lucas · ~245 mi WSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

    NHC Adv 17

    NHC Adv 17 (200 AM MST / 0900 UTC Thu Oct 1): Hurricane Rachel near 19.4N 109.3W · 100 mph · 972 mb · WNW 6 mph · ~245 mi S of Cabo San Lucas. Expected to keep strengthening and become a major hurricane within the next couple of days; Discussion 17 peaks it at 120 mph. No coastal watches or warnings; rain to an isolated 12 in across coastal Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco.

  • official (NDRRMA)

    Nepal: rain and landslides kill at least 34 in a week: Himlung avalanche toll rises to 15

    Nepal: Himlung Himal base camp, Nar Phu, Manang · Annapurna Circuit (Manang, Mustang) · Pokhara (pin: NDRRMA BIPAD avalanche incident point, Narpa Bhoomi Rural Municipality-3: ward point, not the avalanche site)

    NDRRMA via dpa · NNMGA

    Nepal’s disaster authority (NDRRMA) says at least 34 people have died, 15 were injured and 11 are missing since heavy rain began Thursday Sep 24; 23 of the deaths came from landslides (dpa, Sep 30). Separately, recovery teams have now found 15 of the 16 Nepali workers buried by the Sep 27 avalanche at Himlung Himal base camp in Manang; one is still missing (mountain guides association, via The Himalayan Times, Oct 1). About 700 trekkers are waiting in Pokhara for the Annapurna Circuit to reopen.

  • official data (NOAA / NHC)

    Hurricane Rachel: 85 mph and rapid strengthening expected: could be a major hurricane within a day

    Eastern Pacific · 18.1°N 108.0°W (Adv 14) · ~380 mi W of Lázaro Cárdenas · ~220 mi SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

    NHC Advisory 14

    NHC Adv 14 (800 AM MST / 1500 UTC Wed Sep 30): Hurricane Rachel near 18.1N 108.0W · 85 mph · 978 mb · NW 9 mph · ~220 mi SW of Cabo Corrientes. Rapid strengthening expected today and tonight: could become a major hurricane within the next day or so. Mexico dropped all coastal watches/warnings; rain 2-6 in, isolated 12 in, across coastal Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco.

  • official data

    Polo dissipates over northwestern Mexico: NHC issues its last advisory

    Northwestern Mexico · remnants 30.5°N 108.0°W (Adv 38) · ~245 mi NE of Guaymas · Wind Advisory southern New Mexico + far western Texas

    NOAA National Hurricane Center (EP172026 Adv. 38)

    NHC Adv 38 (800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 / 0300 UTC Sep 30): remnants of Polo near 30.5N 108.0W · ~245 mi NE of Guaymas · 35 mph · 996 mb · NE 23 mph. No coastal watches or warnings; a Wind Advisory remains for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas. Last public advisory. Arc: Cat 5 peak → Baja California Sur landfall as a major hurricane Monday night → hurricane landfall just east of Guaymas Tuesday (36A) → dissipated. Supersedes the Adv 27 card.

  • official data

    Polo holds at Cat 3: Hurricane Warnings now on both Baja California Sur coasts

    Eastern Pacific EP172026 · 20.3°N 113.6°W (Adv 27) · ~300 mi SW Cabo San Lucas · Hurricane Warning west coast BCS Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe + east coast Loreto to Santa Rosalia

    NOAA National Hurricane Center (EP172026 Adv. 27)

    NHC Adv 27 (0900 UTC / 200 AM MST Sun Sep 27): Cat 3 · 120 mph · 952 mb · 20.3N 113.6W · NNW 10 mph · ~300 mi SW Cabo San Lucas. New: Hurricane Warning east coast of Baja California Sur, Loreto to Santa Rosalia (west-coast Warning Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe stays); Hurricane Watch mainland Mexico, Huatabampito to Bahia Kino. Headline: preparations should be rushed to completion in Baja California Sur. Supersedes the Adv 25 Cat 4 card.

  • official data

    Polo turns northwest at Cat 4: NHC forecasts a Baja California Sur approach Monday

    Eastern Pacific EP172026 · 18.7°N 112.5°W (Adv 25) · ~335 mi SSW Cabo San Lucas · Hurricane Watch Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe

    NOAA National Hurricane Center (EP172026 Adv. 25)

    NHC Adv 25 (2100 UTC / 200 PM MST Sat): Cat 4 · 145 mph · 938 mb · 18.7N 112.5W · NW 10 mph · ~335 mi SSW Cabo San Lucas. Headline: FORECAST TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY. Discussion 25: 125 kt; unusually large track-model spread, some regional models stall Polo offshore: confidence “not particularly high.” Hurricane Watch Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe. Supersedes Adv 23.

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