Climate / Earth
Climate and Earth-system monitoring from named official products. Snapshot values are dated and sourced. Nothing here is a forecast.
Snapshot
- Alert
- El Niño Advisory
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026
- July Niño-3.4
- +1.4°C
- Outlook
- Greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 (CPC language)
- Next discussion
- Sep 10, 2026
- Source
- NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Notes
official data
CPC week-2: 105°F heat and rapid-onset drought still stalking the Plains
Central and Southern Plains, United States
CPC’s Week-2 Hazards Outlook issued 3:00 PM EDT Aug 31, 2026 keeps a moderate extreme-heat risk over the Central and Southern Plains and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley for Sep 8–9, plus Rapid Onset Drought risk. Official outlook, not a drought map invented here.
official data
Pasterze, Austria’s largest glacier, hangs on one icefall — Landsat 9, 15 Aug
Pasterze Glacier, Hohe Tauern, Austria
NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day for 31 Aug 2026 compares Landsat 5 (22 Aug 1985) with Landsat 9 (15 Aug 2026): only the Hufeisenbruch icefall still connects Pasterze’s upper and lower ice. University of Graz: icefall width from nearly 900 m (3,000 ft) in 1998 to 120 m (390 ft) in 2025.
official data
M 5.5 north of Ruteng rattles Flores — USGS PAGER still green
44 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
USGS event us7000td2z is a reviewed magnitude 5.5 earthquake 44 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia, origin 31 Aug 2026, 4:03 AM EDT. PAGER fatality alert green. Tsunami flag 0. ShakeMap max MMI about 6.4.
official data
USGS: M 6.0 north of Caluula, Somalia — major quake, PAGER still green, tsunami flag 0
145 km N of Caluula, Somalia
USGS event us7000tcf3 is a reviewed magnitude 6.0 earthquake at 13.2654°N, 50.5425°E. PAGER fatality alert is green — the lowest level. Tsunami flag 0.
official data
Rare Atacama snow runs Andes to Pacific — Landsat 8/9 and Terra, Aug 2026
Chajnantor plateau / ALMA, Atacama, Chile
NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day for 27 Aug 2026: back-to-back August storms put snow on the Atacama from the Andes toward the Pacific. Landsat 8/9 show Chajnantor/ALMA on 6 Aug vs 14 Aug; Terra MODIS on 19 Aug shows snow across the hyper-arid core to near the coast south of Antofagasta.
official data
Glacier above Kodāri collapses into debris flow — USGS: landslide, not an earthquake
55 km NW of Kodāri, Nepal
USGS event us7000tbwb is typed landslide, not earthquake: reviewed analysis attributes the seismic energy to a glacial collapse and debris flow near Kodāri, Nepal.
official data
El Niño Advisory: Niño-3.4 at +1.4°C — >90% chance of a very strong fall–winter
Niño-3.4 monitoring region, equatorial Pacific
CPC’s 13 August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issues an El Niño Advisory: El Niño is strengthening, with greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27.
official data
20-year subpolar Atlantic overturning array finds no significant trend
Labrador Sea, 53°N SCOTIA/OSNAP western boundary
Fox et al., Ocean Science, 22, 1439–1456, 2026 (published 8 May 2026): SCOTIA extends subpolar AMOC to 2004–2024 and finds no statistically significant trend (0.42 Sv/decade, 95% CI −0.39 to +1.22). Not a collapse-date paper.
Paper shelf
No papers listed yet.