official data (NOAA / NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory 46 and Discussion 46, 1500 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026)
Tropical Storm Rachel, now 70 mph, is forecast to turn toward northern Baja California and Southern California this weekend
Rachel is weaker than it was earlier in the week, but it is turning toward land. The National Hurricane Center’s Advisory 46 has it as a 70 mph tropical storm about 915 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. A trough is forecast to swing it sharply northeast on Saturday, and NHC expects it to approach extreme northern Baja California, the northern Gulf of California and Southern California over the weekend at tropical storm strength.
Key facts
- Adv 46 (800 AM PDT / 11 AM EDT Thu Oct 8)
- Tropical Storm Rachel (EP182026) · near 22.1N 124.2W · ~915 mi (1,470 km) W of the southern tip of Baja California · 70 mph (110 km/h) · 985 mb · WNW at 7 mph (11 km/h) · tropical-storm-force winds out to 115 mi
- Warnings
- No coastal watches or warnings yet · a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for part of extreme northern Baja California, the northern Gulf of California and Southern California by tonight
- Track
- West-northwest for about a day, then a sharp turn northeast with faster forward speed on Saturday · near northern Baja California late Saturday · forecast inland near 32.8N 115.3W by 8 AM EDT Sunday, post-tropical by Monday, dissipated by Tuesday
- Intensity
- Gradual weakening over cooler water, dry air and rising shear: 65 mph tonight, 50 mph from Friday evening through Saturday evening ET, 45 mph inland Sunday morning · still tropical storm strength near northern Baja California · NHC says it is highly uncertain whether Rachel will be tropical or post-tropical by then, and either way it brings heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds
- Rain
- Moisture spreads over parts of the Southwest U.S. and the northern Baja California peninsula through the weekend, with a threat of flash and urban flooding (Key Message 2)
- Wind inland
- Gusty winds likely over interior parts of the Southwest U.S. into early next week (Key Message 1)
All facts (9)
- Surf
- Swells partly from Rachel build along Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend · likely life-threatening surf and rip currents
- Since Adv 33 (Mon Oct 5)
- Adv 33 had a 90 mph hurricane near 20.4N 115.6W, about 405 mi WSW of the southern tip of Baja California
- Next
- Next complete advisory 200 PM PDT (5 PM EDT) Thu Oct 8
There is still a high degree of uncertainty on if Rachel will be a tropical or post-tropical system as it approaches northern Baja California and southern California. Regardless, the cyclone is expected to produce heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds.
NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion 46 · 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Note
At 8 AM PDT Thursday (11 AM EDT), the National Hurricane Center put Tropical Storm Rachel’s maximum sustained winds at 70 mph. The center was near 22.1 North, 124.2 West, about 915 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 7 mph, with a minimum pressure of 985 mb and tropical-storm-force winds out to 115 miles. On Monday, at Advisory 33, Rachel was a 90 mph hurricane about 405 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
There are no coastal watches or warnings yet. NHC says interests in extreme northern Baja California, the northern Gulf of California and Southern California should monitor Rachel, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for part of that area by tonight. Rachel is expected to keep moving west-northwest for about a day before a mid- to upper-level trough turns it sharply northeast and speeds it up on Saturday, bringing it near northern Baja California late Saturday. NHC’s track has it inland near 32.8 North, 115.3 West by 8 AM EDT Sunday.
Dry air, cooling water and rising wind shear should keep weakening Rachel gradually, to about 50 mph from Friday evening through Saturday evening Eastern time. NHC says the water near California and Baja California is warmer than normal and the trough could help storms grow, and it is highly uncertain whether Rachel will still be tropical when it arrives. Either way, NHC expects heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds, with gusty winds over the interior Southwest into early next week.
Moisture from Rachel will spread over parts of the Southwest U.S. and northern Baja California through the weekend, with a threat of flash and urban flooding. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. The next complete advisory is due at 2 PM PDT (5 PM EDT).
Why it matters
Tropical storms rarely reach Southern California. NHC now says Rachel could, at tropical storm strength, with a watch possibly going up tonight. Waters off California and Baja California are warmer than normal, and the rain spreads over the Southwest with a flash flood threat through the weekend.
Sources
- NOAA NHC: Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory 46 (latest public advisory page)
- NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion 46 (latest discussion page)
- Earlier: Rachel at Advisory 32 (Oct 4 evening)
- Hero image: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR (GOES-18 GeoColor · 17:00 UTC Oct 8 2026)
- Figure (Map · NHC Advisory 46): NOAA NHC Advisory 46 GIS + preliminary best track
Primary + secondary attribution as listed.
More: Hurricanes & typhoons
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