Doom Signals
Menu

official data (NOAA / NHC for CPHC: Hurricane Nolo Advisory 57 and Discussion 57, 2100 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026, the last NHC advisory · JMA / RSMC Tokyo: Typhoon Nolo (T2628) analysis, 0000 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026)

Nolo crosses the Date Line as a Category 3 and Japan’s weather agency takes over the advisories

Origin Lane: climateWestern North Pacific, just west of the Date Line · 24.8°N 179.4°E (JMA, 0000 UTC Oct 5)By the Doom Signals desk

Hurricane Nolo has crossed the International Date Line into the western Pacific, and the US forecasters who tracked it from Hawaii have handed it over to Japan. The last US advisory put Nolo at 115 mph, a Category 3 storm, and Japan’s weather agency now lists it as a typhoon a little north of the Date Line, still moving west.

Adv 57 (1100 AM HST / 5 PM ET Sun Oct 4), NHC’s last
Hurricane Nolo, Category 3 · center near 24.2N 180.0 · ~395 mi (640 km) WSW of Lisianski Island · 115 mph (185 km/h) · 959 mb · W at 17 mph
Handoff
“This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan.” For US interests, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu issues advisories
JMA analysis (0000 UTC Oct 5 / 8 PM ET Sun Oct 4)
Typhoon Nolo (T2628) · center 24.8N 179.4E · maximum sustained winds 90 kt (about 105 mph), gusts 130 kt · 960 hPa · moving west at 16 kt (30 km/h) · storm-force winds within 70 nm (130 km) of the center
Wind speeds compared
JMA averages winds over 10 minutes and NHC over 1 minute, so JMA’s 90 kt and NHC’s 100 kt are not a change in strength
Forecast
NHC Discussion 57: slight strengthening possible over the next 18 to 24 hours, then steady weakening from strong shear and dry air through the middle to end of the week · JMA: 90 kt and 960 hPa through 0000 UTC Oct 6 near 25.5N 173.1E, 70 kt by 0000 UTC Oct 7, a severe tropical storm by Oct 8
Warnings
No coastal watches or warnings in effect (NHC Adv 57)
Surf
Large swell will keep affecting the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument over the next few days and will likely inundate some low-lying atolls from Maro Reef to Lisianski Island
Since Adv 56 (Sun morning)
Adv 56 had 115 mph and 963 mb near 23.8N 178.5W

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan.

NHC Hurricane Nolo Advisory 57 · 1100 AM HST Sun Oct 4 2026

At 11 AM Hawaii time Sunday (5 PM ET), the National Hurricane Center, writing for the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, issued its last advisory on Hurricane Nolo. Advisory 57 put its maximum sustained winds at 115 mph, Category 3, with the center on the International Date Line at 24.2 north, about 395 miles west-southwest of Lisianski Island, moving west at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb.

Future advisories come from RSMC Tokyo, run by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Its analysis for 0000 UTC Monday (8 PM ET Sunday) lists Typhoon Nolo at 24.8 north, 179.4 east, with 960 hPa central pressure and maximum sustained winds of 90 knots, moving west at 16 knots. JMA averages winds over 10 minutes rather than NHC’s one minute, so its lower number is not a sign of weakening. For US interests, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu issues advisories.

NHC’s final discussion allowed for slight strengthening over the next day, then steady weakening from strong wind shear and dry air through the middle to end of the week. JMA’s forecast keeps Nolo a typhoon through Tuesday and has it down to a severe tropical storm by Thursday, Japan time. There are no coastal watches or warnings; large swell will keep reaching the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument for a few more days and will likely inundate some low-lying atolls from Maro Reef to Lisianski Island.

Why it matters

Nolo is now a western Pacific typhoon, tracked by Japan’s weather agency, and it is still a strong storm over open ocean as it moves away from Hawaii’s remote atolls.

Sources

Primary + secondary attribution as listed.

Daily board · Archive

More: Hurricanes & typhoons

Doom Signals desk · About · Contact · Corrections. Spotted an error? Write the desk; fixes go on the public log.