official (US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Vance public advisory 16, Oct 25)
Hurricane Vance creeps toward Mexico, and forecasters warn of up to 7 inches of rain
It is slow, and slow is the danger. The hurricane center says Vance will keep crawling toward Mexico for days, and its rain may bring flooding and mudslides to steep ground.
Key facts
- Advisory
- Public advisory 16, 3 AM CST (09 UTC, 5 AM ET) Oct 25 (NHC)
- Position
- 14.3N 103.4W, about 475 km southwest of Acapulco and 530 km south of Manzanillo, Mexico (NHC)
- Movement
- North northwest at 7 km/h; a slow north northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue the next few days (NHC)
- Strength
- Maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (140 km/h); central pressure 980 mb; gradual weakening forecast the next couple of days (NHC)
- Size
- Hurricane force winds extend up to 45 km from the center, tropical storm force winds up to 240 km (NHC)
- Rain
- Through Thursday, 2 to 4 inches, isolated higher totals of 7 inches, across Colima and western Michoacán and Jalisco; may produce flooding and mudslides, especially along steep terrain (NHC)
- Surf
- Swells likely to cause life threatening surf and rip currents along southern and southwestern Mexico for several days (NHC)
- Warnings
- No coastal watches or warnings in effect; interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor Vance (NHC)
This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.
National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Vance advisory 16, Oct 25
Note
Hurricane Vance is creeping toward southwestern Mexico, the US National Hurricane Center says. In public advisory 16, issued at 3 AM CST on Sunday, October 25, it placed the center at 14.3N 103.4W, about 475 km southwest of Acapulco and 530 km south of Manzanillo, moving north northwest at 7 km/h.
Its winds are near 85 mph, about 140 km/h, down from 110 mph on Saturday morning, and the center expects gradual weakening over the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds reach up to 45 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 240 km.
The rain is the worry. Through Thursday the hurricane center expects 2 to 4 inches across Colima and western Michoacán and Jalisco, with isolated totals of 7 inches, and says it may produce flooding and mudslides, especially along steep terrain.
Swells from Vance are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip currents along southern and southwestern Mexico for several days. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, and the center tells interests along the southwestern coast to monitor the storm.
It is barely moving. That is the problem.
Why it matters
A slow storm does not have to make landfall to do harm. Rain that falls for days on the steep slopes of Colima, Michoacán and Jalisco is what turns into floods and mudslides, and the hurricane center expects Vance to move at walking pace for the next few days.
Sources
- US National Hurricane Center: Hurricane Vance public advisory 16 (Oct 25 2026)
- US National Hurricane Center: Eastern Pacific graphics for Hurricane Vance (Oct 25 2026)
Primary + secondary attribution as listed.
More: Hurricanes & typhoons
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