official data (JMA / RSMC Tokyo: Typhoon Nolo (T2628) analysis 0900 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 and forecast, issued 1005 UTC · NOAA / NHC for CPHC: Hurricane Nolo Advisory 57, the last NHC advisory)
Typhoon Nolo deepens to 950 hPa west of the Date Line, with Japan’s forecast weakening it by midweek
Typhoon Nolo has strengthened slightly since crossing the International Date Line. Japan’s weather agency, which took over the advisories from the US on Sunday, now puts its central pressure at 950 hPa, down from 960, with the storm moving west-northwest across open ocean. The agency’s forecast holds that strength through Monday, then weakens it through the middle of the week.
Key facts
- JMA analysis (0900 UTC / 5 AM ET Mon Oct 5)
- Typhoon Nolo (T2628) · center 25.5N 177.0E · maximum sustained winds 95 kt (about 110 mph, 10-minute average), gusts 135 kt · 950 hPa · moving west-northwest at 14 kt (25 km/h) · storm-force winds within 70 nm (130 km) of the center
- Since JMA’s 0000 UTC analysis
- Then 90 kt and 960 hPa near 24.8N 179.4E · now 95 kt and 950 hPa
- JMA forecast
- 95 kt and 950 hPa near 25.7N 174.0E at 2100 UTC Oct 5 · 85 kt and 965 hPa near 25.6N 170.4E at 0900 UTC Oct 6 · 65 kt near 25.8N 162.1E at 0600 UTC Oct 7 · severe tropical storm (55 kt) near 27.3N 154.3E at 0600 UTC Oct 8, turning toward the north-northwest by Oct 10
- Wind speeds compared
- JMA averages winds over 10 minutes and NHC over 1 minute, so JMA’s numbers run lower than NHC’s for the same storm
- Handoff
- NHC issued its last advisory (Adv 57) at 11 AM HST Sun Oct 4 with Nolo at 115 mph, Category 3, on the Date Line; RSMC Tokyo now issues advisories, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu issues them for US interests
- Warnings
- NHC Adv 57 listed no coastal watches or warnings; JMA’s forecast track stays over open ocean through Oct 10
Nolo is currently situated within a favorable environment, with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear, some slight strengthening is possible over the next 18 to 24 hours.
NHC Hurricane Nolo Discussion 57 · 1100 AM HST Sun Oct 4 2026
Note
Japan’s weather agency, which runs the regional typhoon center in Tokyo, put Typhoon Nolo at 25.5 north, 177.0 east at 0900 UTC Monday (5 AM ET), with a central pressure of 950 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 95 knots, gusting to 135. It was moving west-northwest at 14 knots. In JMA’s first analysis after the handoff, at 0000 UTC, Nolo had 90 knots and 960 hPa, so the storm has deepened a little in nine hours.
The US National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on Sunday at 11 AM Hawaii time, with Nolo at 115 mph on the Date Line, and its final discussion allowed for slight strengthening over the next day before strong wind shear and dry air take over. JMA averages winds over 10 minutes rather than one, so its lower numbers are not a sign of weakening.
JMA’s forecast keeps Nolo at 95 knots through Monday evening, then weakens it to 85 knots by Tuesday and 65 knots by Wednesday, and to a severe tropical storm by Thursday, while it moves west over open ocean and then turns north-northwest later in the week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu issues advisories for US interests.
Why it matters
NHC’s last discussion allowed for slight strengthening on Monday, and Japan’s numbers show it. Nolo is a strong typhoon over open water, and Japan’s forecast weakens it from Tuesday.
Sources
- Japan Meteorological Agency: typhoon information (Typhoon Nolo, T2628)
- RSMC Tokyo: Typhoon Center advisories
- NOAA NHC for CPHC: Hurricane Nolo Advisory 57, the last NHC advisory
- Earlier: Nolo at NHC Advisory 57 and the JMA handoff (Oct 4 evening)
- Hero image: NASA Worldview (NOAA-20 VIIRS true color · 00:48 to 00:54 UTC Oct 5 2026)
Primary + secondary attribution as listed.
More: Hurricanes & typhoons
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