official (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 Oct 2026 · next scheduled 12 Nov 2026)
El Niño: NOAA raises the odds of the strongest event since 1950 to 83% for October to December
CLIMATE // EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
83%
chance Oct to Dec 2026 beats every El Niño since 1950 (NOAA CPC, Oct 8)
NOAA's October word on El Niño is in, and the odds of a record-breaking event this autumn went up, not down.
Key facts
- Status (CPC, Oct 8)
- El Niño Advisory · El Niño continues to strengthen
- Strength odds
- A strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance)
- Historic odds
- Chance a season exceeds every El Niño since 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value): 54% September to November · 83% October to December · 70% November to January. In September, CPC gave October to December 75%.
- Very strong odds (CPC strength table, Oct)
- Index at or above +2.0°C: 100% Sep to Nov · 100% Oct to Dec · 96% Nov to Jan · 81% Dec to Feb · 46% Jan to Mar
- Ocean now (September)
- Niño-3.4 +2.1°C · Niño-3 +3.0°C · Niño-1+2 +3.9°C · eastern equatorial Pacific anomalies above +4.0°C in places · subsurface anomalies above +10.0°C at depth
- Atmosphere (CPC)
- Low-level westerly wind anomalies from the western to east-central equatorial Pacific · enhanced rain from the central to eastern Pacific, suppressed over Indonesia · Southern Oscillation indices significantly negative
All facts (8)
- Impacts (CPC)
- With an event this large, the chances of El Niño-type impacts are larger, though not guaranteed
- Watch
- Next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion: Thursday, 12 Nov 2026 · CPC also posts weekly ocean conditions
With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 Oct 2026
Note
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center published its monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the official U.S. read on El Niño, on Thursday, Oct 8. It kept the El Niño Advisory in place and said El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong to very strong event likely through January to March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). The headline number moved up. CPC now gives an 83% chance that the October to December season will be historic: stronger than any El Niño on record back to 1950, defined as +2.5°C or more on the three-month relative index CPC now uses. A month ago it gave that season 75%. For September to November the chance is 54%, and for November to January 70%.
The ocean numbers rose with it. In September the Niño-3.4 index, the main yardstick, reached +2.1°C, up from +1.8°C in August. Niño-3 reached +3.0°C and Niño-1+2, off South America, +3.9°C. Surface anomalies topped +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and water below the surface still ran more than 10°C above average at depth. The air above is following the water: CPC says the coupled ocean and atmosphere reflected a strengthening El Niño.
CPC is careful about what that means on land. A stronger event makes El Niño-type impacts more likely, it says, though not guaranteed. The next discussion is scheduled for Thursday, Nov 12.
Why it matters
El Niño shifts rain and heat around the world, and NOAA's October numbers point even more firmly to the strongest one in its records since 1950. In one month the odds for October to December rose from 75% to 83%. CPC's next read is Nov 12.
Sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NCEP / NWS
- NOAA CPC: ENSO strength probabilities, issued October 2026 (RONI thresholds)
- NOAA CPC: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 Oct 2026 (PDF)
- Hero data: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Oct 8
- Official graphic: NOAA/CPC
Primary + secondary attribution as listed.
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