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official data (NOAA / NHC Hurricane Rachel Advisory 32 and Discussion 32, 0300 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026)

Rachel weakens to 100 mph far off Baja California as dry air reaches its core

Origin Lane: climateEastern North Pacific · 20.2°N 114.8°W (Adv 32) · ~365 mi WSW of the southern tip of Baja CaliforniaBy the Doom Signals desk

Hurricane Rachel lost some strength on Sunday evening and is still far from land. The National Hurricane Center’s Advisory 32 puts its winds at 100 mph, down from 105 mph that morning, with the center about 365 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. There are no coastal watches or warnings, and forecasters expect it to keep weakening through the week.

Adv 32 (800 PM MST / 11 PM ET Sun Oct 4)
Hurricane Rachel, Category 2 · center near 20.2N 114.8W · ~365 mi (590 km) WSW of the southern tip of Baja California · 100 mph (155 km/h) · 967 mb · WNW at 7 mph
Warnings
No coastal watches or warnings in effect
Surf
Swells will keep affecting the Baja California Peninsula coast for the next couple of days, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents
Wind field
Hurricane-force winds up to 40 mi (65 km) from the center, tropical-storm-force up to 140 mi (220 km)
Structure (Discussion 32)
The eye has filled in and the inner core seems to have come apart · dry air appears to have reached the core · NHC says the 85 kt (100 mph) estimate could be generous
Forecast (Discussion 32)
Generally westward through midweek, then back toward the west-northwest late in the week · gradual weakening from Monday into drier air and water of 26°C or less · about 90 mph by Monday evening, 70 mph by Wednesday evening, 45 mph by Friday evening (ET)
Since Adv 30 (Sun morning)
Adv 30 had 105 mph and 965 mb near 20.2N 113.8W
Next
Next complete advisory 200 AM MST (5 AM ET Mon Oct 5)

Based on water vapor imagery, it appears that dry air has managed to make its way into the core of the hurricane.

NHC Hurricane Rachel Discussion 32 · 800 PM MST Sun Oct 4 2026

At 8 PM MST Sunday (11 PM ET), the National Hurricane Center put Hurricane Rachel’s maximum sustained winds at 100 mph, still a Category 2 hurricane but down from 105 mph that morning. The center was near 20.2 north, 114.8 west, about 365 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb.

There are no coastal watches or warnings. Swells from Rachel will keep reaching the coast of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

NHC’s discussion says Rachel’s eye has filled in and its inner core seems to have come apart, with dry air appearing to reach the core; it calls the 100 mph estimate possibly generous. Forecasters expect a generally westward track through midweek and gradual weakening from Monday, to about 70 mph by Wednesday evening and 45 mph by Friday evening, Eastern time. The next complete advisory is due at 2 AM MST (5 AM ET).

Why it matters

Rachel is weakening at sea. The only land hazard NHC lists is dangerous surf on the Baja California coast for the next couple of days.

Sources

Primary + secondary attribution as listed.

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