Tropical Storm Simon near hurricane strength; Mexico issues Hurricane Warning as NHC forecasts a Category 4 before landfall

Note

At NHC Advisory 6, 3 PM CST (5 PM EDT) Thursday, October 8, the center of Tropical Storm Simon was near 15.7 North, 103.9 West, about 230 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, and about 345 miles south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph, with the pressure estimated at 992 mb. Simon is moving west at 6 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, a Hurricane Watch from west of Playa Perula to Punta Mita, and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. NHC says preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A turn to the northwest is expected by early Friday, followed by a northward motion Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Simon is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast. Simon is expected to become a hurricane tonight and a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Discussion 6 says Simon has a very compact inner core with some signs of an eye becoming apparent in satellite images, and that near-ideal conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and very warm water favor rapid intensification. The SHIPS model shows more than a 70 percent chance of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours. The official forecast peaks at 115 knots, about 130 mph, at 10/0600Z near 17.7 North, 105.0 West, and holds 115 knots at 10/1800Z near 18.8 North, 104.9 West, then weakens inland.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Saturday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions expected Saturday morning. NHC forecasts rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Sunday. That rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall, accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

The next intermediate advisory is due at 6 PM CST. The next complete advisory is due at 9 PM CST. Forecaster Cangialosi.