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official data (NOAA / NHC Hurricane Rachel Advisory 30 and Discussion 30, 1500 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026)

Rachel holds at 105 mph far off Baja California; forecasters expect it to weaken from Monday

Origin Lane: climateEastern North Pacific · 20.2°N 113.8°W (Adv 30) · ~310 mi SW of the southern tip of Baja CaliforniaBy the Doom Signals desk

Hurricane Rachel strengthened a little on Sunday morning but is staying far from land. The National Hurricane Center’s Advisory 30 puts its winds at 105 mph, a Category 2 storm, about 310 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. There are no coastal watches or warnings, and forecasters expect it to start weakening on Monday.

Adv 30 (800 AM MST / 11 AM ET Sun Oct 4)
Hurricane Rachel, Category 2 · eye near 20.2N 113.8W · ~310 mi (500 km) SW of the southern tip of Baja California · 105 mph (165 km/h) · 965 mb · WNW at 6 mph
Warnings
No coastal watches or warnings in effect
Surf
Swells will keep affecting the Baja California Peninsula coast through Monday, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents
Wind field
Hurricane-force winds up to 40 mi (65 km) from the center, tropical-storm-force up to 125 mi (205 km)
Forecast (Discussion 30)
Turn west by tonight, slow westward motion through midweek · likely holds strength today, then steady weakening from Monday over sub-26°C water and drier air · 50 mph by Fri Oct 9 near 22.8N 127.5W
Earlier (Adv 18, Thu Oct 1)
105 mph near 19.6N 109.6W, with Discussion 18 forecasting a major hurricane by Friday
Next
Next complete advisory 200 PM MST (5 PM ET)

Fluctuations in strength are possible today, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken beginning on Monday.

NHC Hurricane Rachel Advisory 30 · 800 AM MST Sun Oct 4 2026

At 8 AM MST Sunday, the National Hurricane Center put Hurricane Rachel’s maximum sustained winds at 105 mph, a Category 2 hurricane, after it strengthened a little overnight. The eye was near 20.2 north, 113.8 west, about 310 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb.

There are no coastal watches or warnings. Swells from Rachel will keep reaching the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

NHC expects a turn toward the west by tonight and slow westward motion through the middle of the week. Its discussion says Rachel will likely hold its strength today, then weaken steadily from Monday as it moves into drier air and over water cooler than 26°C, falling to about 50 mph by Friday. The next complete advisory is due at 2 PM MST (5 PM ET).

Why it matters

Rachel is a strong hurricane that is staying at sea. The only land hazard NHC lists is dangerous surf on the Baja California coast through Monday.

Sources

Primary + secondary attribution as listed.

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