official data (NOAA / NHC Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory 14 + Discussion 14, 1500 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026)
Hurricane Rachel: 85 mph and rapid strengthening expected — could be a major hurricane within a day
The National Hurricane Center’s Advisory 14 at 800 AM MST Wednesday puts Hurricane Rachel near 18.1 north, 108.0 west — about 220 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes — with 85 mph winds and a 978 mb pressure, and says rapid strengthening is expected today and tonight and Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so, even as the core stays offshore and Mexico has discontinued all coastal watches and warnings.
Key facts
- Adv 14 stamp (800 AM MST / 1500 UTC Wed Sep 30)
- Hurricane Rachel · 18.1N 108.0W · ~380 mi (615 km) W of Lázaro Cárdenas · ~220 mi (350 km) SW of Cabo Corrientes · 85 mph (140 km/h) · 978 mb · NW 9 mph
- Intensity (Adv 14)
- “Rapid strengthening is expected today and tonight, and Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so.”
- Forecast peak (Discussion 14)
- 105 kt (120 mph) at 36–48 h — near the upper edge of guidance
- Track
- Northwest, slowing, then west-northwest and west — away from mainland Mexico, passing south of the Baja California Peninsula through Thursday
- Watches / warnings
- Mexico discontinued all coastal watches and warnings · interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor Rachel
- Rain
- Additional 2–6 in, isolated storm totals of 12 in, across coastal Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco — life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible, especially in steep terrain
- Wind / surf
- Tropical-storm-force gusts possible on the southwestern Mexico coast through tonight · hurricane-force winds extend 25 mi, tropical-storm-force 160 mi · life-threatening surf and rip currents spreading to west-central Mexico and the Baja peninsula
- Brakes (Discussion 14)
- 15–20 kt of shear and a track of cooler water left by Polo could slow strengthening
- Live later
- Next NHC advisory 200 PM MST · category changes → climate HUD — no invented landfall or toll
Rapid strengthening is expected today and tonight, and Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so.
NHC Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory 14 · 800 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026
Note
The Eastern Pacific did not pause. National Hurricane Center Advisory 14, issued at 800 AM MST Wednesday, has Hurricane Rachel near 18.1 north, 108.0 west, about 220 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph and a pressure of 978 mb, moving northwest at 9 mph. NHC expects rapid strengthening today and tonight and says Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so; Discussion 14 peaks it at 105 knots, near the top of the guidance, while flagging 15 to 20 knots of shear and a track of cooler water left behind by Polo as brakes.
The forecast keeps the core offshore — northwest, then west, passing south of the Baja California Peninsula through Thursday — and Mexico has discontinued all coastal watches and warnings. The hazard is water: 2 to 6 inches of additional rain, isolated totals of 12, across coastal Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible, plus dangerous surf spreading up the coast. The next advisory and any category change go to the HUD.
Why it matters
One day after Polo’s last advisory, the same coast has another hurricane off it — and NHC is calling for rapid strengthening toward major status, with isolated totals of a foot of rain on the coast of southwest Mexico. The core stays at sea; the flooding does not need it to land.
Sources
- NOAA National Hurricane Center — Rachel Public Advisory 14
- NHC Rachel Discussion 14
- NHC Rachel graphics (5-day cone)
- Polo Adv 38 card (Rachel crosses Polo’s cool-water track)
Primary + secondary attribution as listed.
More: Hurricanes & typhoons
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