Space weather
The Sun throws off flares and clouds of charged particles that can reach Earth within hours or days. Most bring little more than northern lights. Strong storms can strain power grids, satellites, GPS and radio. This page lists the space-weather notes on the board, newest first, built on NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center scales and forecasts.
Live official sources we watch
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center — official alerts, watches and warnings
- SWPC 3-day forecast — expected geomagnetic, radiation and radio conditions
- SWPC Planetary K-index — the geomagnetic gauge on our live HUD
- SWPC GOES X-ray flux — solar flare strength, live
- NOAA space weather scales — what G1–G5, S1–S5 and R1–R5 mean
- NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory — the AIA 171 Sun image on our home page
Latest on the board
official data (NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center: Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast 1230 UTC Oct 8 2026 · WATCH WATA30 Serial 283 · ALERT ALTEF3 Serial 3752 · SUMMARY SUMXM5 Serial 327) · ECDO-lane monitor
NOAA still expects a G2 storm Friday morning, and a second solar blast may reach Earth Saturday night
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic watch (global) · impacts primarily poleward of 55° geomagnetic latitude
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center still has a G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm watch for Oct 9, when the CME from Oct 6 arrives: forecast Kp 5.00 (G1) for about 11 PM Thursday to 2 AM Friday ET and 5.67 (G2) for about 5 to 8 AM Friday ET. This is a moderate storm watch, not a severe storm forecast. SWPC’s first modeling of a second CME, launched Oct 7 after a C7.9 flare from Region 4549, shows an Earth-directed part arriving early Oct 11 UTC, Saturday night into Sunday ET; no watch has been issued for it. High-energy electrons have been above NOAA’s alert level since Oct 5, peaking at 11,911 pfu on Oct 7. An M6.7 flare at 11:48 AM ET Thursday caused an R2 (Moderate) radio blackout.
official data (NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center: ALERT ALTK06 Serial 726, WARNING WARK06 Serial 671, ALERTS ALTK05 Serials 2050 to 2054, warnings WARK05 2268 and 2269 and WARK04 5425 and 5426, 3-Day Forecast 0030 UTC Oct 5 2026) · ECDO-lane monitor
SWPC: G2 geomagnetic storm reached Oct 4 as coronal-hole stream lingers
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic alert (global) — impacts primarily poleward of 60° geomagnetic latitude
SWPC alert ALTK06 Serial 726 (issued 2058 UTC / 4:58 PM EDT Oct 4) says the K-index reached 6 at 2057 UTC (4:57 PM EDT), a G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm on NOAA’s scale. It came under warning WARK06 Serial 671 (issued 2:47 PM EDT), which ran to 7:59 PM EDT and was not extended. Earlier, three G1 (Minor) alerts were issued for K5: Serials 2050 (7:22 AM EDT), 2051 (10:02 AM EDT) and 2052 (2:39 PM EDT); a fourth, Serial 2053, followed at 7:57 PM EDT. No K7 alert or warning has been issued. A K4 warning (WARK04 Serial 5426) runs to 7:59 PM EDT Oct 5, and G1 returned as SWPC expected: alert ALTK05 Serial 2054 (11:52 PM EDT Oct 4) under a new K5 warning, WARK05 Serial 2269, valid to 11 AM EDT Oct 5. The estimated planetary Kp then fell to 2.33 for 2 to 5 AM EDT Oct 5. G2 effects reach mainly poleward of 55° geomagnetic latitude; aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
official data (NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center WATA20 Serial 1128, issued 2026 Oct 01 1428 UTC) · ECDO-lane monitor — ECDO remains a labeled hypothesis
SWPC watch: minor G1 geomagnetic storm predicted Oct 2 and again Oct 4
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic storm watch (global) — impacts mainly poleward of 60° geomagnetic latitude
SWPC WATA20 Serial 1128 (issued 1428 UTC / 10:28 AM ET Oct 1): highest storm level predicted G1 (Minor) on Oct 2, below G1 on Oct 3, G1 (Minor) on Oct 4 — and it supersedes all prior watches, including the Sep 29 watch that flagged Oct 2 only. SWPC’s 1230 UTC discussion ties Oct 2 to the 28 Sep CME; the watch gives no stated reason for Oct 4. Impacts mainly poleward of 60° geomagnetic latitude. ECDO-lane monitor; ECDO stays a labeled hypothesis.
official data (NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center Forecast Discussion 1230 UTC Sep 30 2026 · SWPC alerts ALTTP2 / ALTTP4 · Solar Region Summary 0030 UTC Sep 30) · ECDO-lane monitor — ECDO remains a labeled hypothesis
SWPC: long-duration C8.6 flare from Region 4535 launches a CME — weak glancing blow possible Oct 4
Sun · NOAA Region 4535 · N11W46 (SWPC SRS, valid 0000 UTC Sep 30)
SWPC Forecast Discussion (1230 UTC Sep 30): Region 4535 (beta-gamma) produced the period’s largest flare, a long-duration C8.6/1f peaking 0246 UTC Sep 30, with a Type II sweep (~523 km/s), a Type IV burst and a CME first seen in LASCO C2 at 0312 UTC. Preliminary modeling: weak glancing blow near Earth on Oct 4, analysis ongoing. Separate from the Oct 2 G1 watch. First Sun-disk pin.
official data (NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center 3-Day Forecast, issued 2026 Sep 30 0030 UTC) · ECDO-lane monitor — ECDO remains a labeled hypothesis
SWPC: G1 geomagnetic storm likely Oct 2 from a glancing CME
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic forecast product (global Kp outlook)
SWPC 3-Day Forecast issued 2026 Sep 30 0030 UTC: greatest expected Kp 4.67 (G1) for Sep 30–Oct 2 · G1 (Minor) likely Oct 2 from glancing effects of a CME that left the Sun Sep 28 · observed Kp max 2 · S1+ 1% · R1–R2 10%. ECDO-lane monitor; ECDO stays a labeled hypothesis.
official data (NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center 3-Day Forecast)
SWPC: G1 geomagnetic storm likely Sep 24 as coronal-hole wind arrives
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic forecast product (global Kp outlook)
SWPC G1 likely Sep 24 (Kp 5.33) — CH HSS; observed Kp 1; no S1
official data (NOAA/NWS SWPC + USGS NEIC) · monitor-desk window stamp
SWPC: G1 (Minor) storms likely Sep 16–17 from coronal-hole stream + glancing CMEs — flares still B-class; strongest USGS day pin M5.1 off Saipan
172 km ESE of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands (USGS pin) · SWPC Boulder forecast product
SWPC 16 Sep 0030Z: G1 likely 16–17 Sep (CH HSS + glancing CMEs) · GOES peak B3.4 · USGS strongest past-day M5.1 Saipan — official monitor stamp.
official data
SWPC: Region 4524 M1.2 / R1 — geomag quiet; see live HUD
Sun / Region 4524 (heliographic; no Earth epicenter)
NOAA SWPC Forecast Discussion issued 2026 Sep 05 0030 UTC: solar activity reached moderate levels; Region 4524 produced an impulsive M1.2/1n flare at 04/0753 UTC. 3-Day Forecast: R1 radio blackouts observed past 24h (largest at that time); >2 MeV electron flux peaked 1,620 pfu at 04/1520 UTC; geomagnetic field quiet; no G1 expected through 07 Sep. Live GOES X-ray class = see live HUD. Not X-class, not a geomagnetic storm, not ECDO proof.
official data
GOES-19 electrons smash 1,000 pfu (max 1,264) — radiation-belt alert, not a pole flip
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Lane page: ECDO / Geophysics