ECDO / Geophysics
This lane tracks official geomagnetic and Earth-orientation data and, separately, the ECDO hypothesis. The hypothesis is not proven science. Official figures and the hypothesis are never merged, and official data is not treated as confirmation of the hypothesis.
official data
Official data
- Kp
- NOAA SWPC Planetary K-index — live HUD. Not frozen on this page.
- IERS
- x = 0.212992″, y = 0.342431″ (Bulletin A final, 27 Aug 2026; arcseconds) finals2000A.daily
- WMM
- NOAA NCEI World Magnetic Model (WMM2025) — a navigation model, not a reversal forecast
Official Earth-orientation and geomagnetic products stay in this column. They are measurements and models, not confirmation of ECDO or of a pole reversal.
hypothesis
Hypothesis
ECDO (Exothermic Core-Mantle Decoupling / Dzhanibekov Oscillation)
Status: tracked hypothesis, not proven science
Some ECDO and pole-reversal discussions cite Chandler wobble and polar motion. Official IERS x-pole and y-pole values are Earth-orientation measurements: where the rotation axis sits relative to the crust. They are not confirmation of a geomagnetic reversal, a crustal flip, or ECDO. This column stays separate from the official-data column.
official data
Chandler wobble
Chandler wobble is a free wobble of Earth’s rotation axis relative to the crust. The IERS Earth Orientation Centre describes it as a free oscillation with a period of about 435 days. IERS’s useful-constants table lists the Chandler period in the terrestrial frame as 433.1 ± 1.7 mean solar days. Polar motion — the daily x and y IERS publishes — is the measured combination of Chandler wobble, an annual wobble, and other terms. This site does not invent an amplitude.
IERS Rapid Service / Prediction Centre finals2000A.daily (IAU2000A), Bulletin A final values for 27 Aug 2026 (MJD 61279): x-pole 0.212992 arcseconds (±0.000091), y-pole 0.342431 arcseconds (±0.000091). Product file last modified 27 Aug 2026, 1:15 PM EDT. Units are arcseconds, as published.

Notes
official data
HVO: Kīlauea pause continues; summit tilt slows after episode 54
Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi
USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory daily update Mon 31 Aug 2026, 8:30 AM HST (2:30 PM ET): Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption paused; alert ADVISORY / aviation YELLOW. Tilt is crustal strain, not polar motion, not ECDO proof.
official data
IERS pole still drifting: x=0.211445″, y=0.339610″ — wobble, not a reversal
IERS Earth Orientation Centre, Paris Observatory
IERS Rapid Service finals2000A.daily Bulletin A final polar motion for 31 Aug 2026 (MJD 61283): x = 0.211445 arcseconds, y = 0.339610 arcseconds. Newer than the 27 Aug snapshot already posted. Official EOP, not a pole flip.
official data
ESA: South Atlantic magnetic weak spot grows by nearly half of Europe since 2014
South Atlantic Anomaly intensity minimum, northeastern Argentina
ESA Swarm: after 11 years, the South Atlantic Anomaly expanded by an area nearly half the size of continental Europe since 2014. IGRF-14 (Beggan et al., EPS 2026): surface total-field minimum 22,071 nT at 26.22°S, 60.03°W at epoch 2025.0. Magnetic anomaly is not a pole reversal. ECDO remains hypothesis.
official data
GOES-19 electrons smash 1,000 pfu (max 1,264) — radiation-belt alert, not a pole flip
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, Colorado
SWPC ALTEF3 serial 3731, issued 31 Aug 2026, 7:47 AM EDT: Electron 2 MeV integral flux exceeded 1,000 pfu at GOES-19 at 11:46 UTC. Yesterday’s max 1,264 pfu. Separate WARK04 warned K-index of 4. Space weather, not ECDO confirmation.
official data
USGS: M5.8 quake hits Kermadec Islands off New Zealand
Kermadec Islands, New Zealand
USGS NEIC reviewed event us7000tcxn: M 5.8, origin 30 Aug 2026 09:02:09 UTC (5:02 AM ET), 35 km depth at 30.1462°S, 177.8882°W. PAGER green; tsunami flag 0. Subduction-zone seismicity, not ECDO proof.
official data
IERS: Earth's pole still wandering — Chandler/annual wobble measured, not a reversal
IERS Rapid Service finals2000A.daily Bulletin A final values for 27 Aug 2026: x-pole 0.212992 arcseconds, y-pole 0.342431 arcseconds. Official Earth-orientation data, not confirmation of a pole reversal or of ECDO.