ECDO / Geophysics
This lane tracks official geomagnetic and Earth-orientation data and, separately, the ECDO hypothesis. The hypothesis is not proven science. Official figures and the hypothesis are never merged, and official data is not treated as confirmation of the hypothesis.
official data
Official data
- Kp
- NOAA SWPC Planetary K-index — live HUD. Not frozen on this page.
- IERS
- x = 0.212992″, y = 0.342431″ (Bulletin A final, 27 Aug 2026; arcseconds) finals2000A.daily
- WMM
- NOAA NCEI World Magnetic Model (WMM2025) — a navigation model, not a reversal forecast
Official Earth-orientation and geomagnetic products stay in this column. They are measurements and models, not confirmation of ECDO or of a pole reversal.
hypothesis
Hypothesis
ECDO (Exothermic Core-Mantle Decoupling / Dzhanibekov Oscillation)
Status: tracked hypothesis, not proven science
Some ECDO and pole-reversal discussions cite Chandler wobble and polar motion. Official IERS x-pole and y-pole values are Earth-orientation measurements: where the rotation axis sits relative to the crust. They are not confirmation of a geomagnetic reversal, a crustal flip, or ECDO. This column stays separate from the official-data column.
official data
Chandler wobble
Chandler wobble is a free wobble of Earth’s rotation axis relative to the crust. The IERS Earth Orientation Centre describes it as a free oscillation with a period of about 435 days. IERS’s useful-constants table lists the Chandler period in the terrestrial frame as 433.1 ± 1.7 mean solar days. Polar motion — the daily x and y IERS publishes — is the measured combination of Chandler wobble, an annual wobble, and other terms. This site does not invent an amplitude.
IERS Rapid Service / Prediction Centre finals2000A.daily (IAU2000A), Bulletin A final values for 27 Aug 2026 (MJD 61279): x-pole 0.212992 arcseconds (±0.000091), y-pole 0.342431 arcseconds (±0.000091). Product file last modified 27 Aug 2026, 1:15 PM EDT. Units are arcseconds, as published.
Notes
official data (NOAA SWPC alerts and NOAA scales)
SWPC keeps a K4 geomagnetic warning running for a second day; no storm in progress
Global · high latitudes (poleward of 65° geomagnetic)
NOAA SWPC extended its Geomagnetic K-index of 4 warning (WARK04, serial 5435, issued 2058 UTC Oct 13) to 1200 UTC (8 AM ET) Oct 14, citing persistence; impacts poleward of 65 degrees geomagnetic latitude. SWPC's scales at 12:48 UTC Oct 14 show no current R, S or G activity, with 10% minor and 1% major radio blackout odds and 5% radiation storm odds for today. A G1 watch was issued Oct 11 after a G2 watch was cancelled.
official data (NOAA / NWS SWPC WATA30 Serial 283 · Forecast Discussion 1230 UTC Oct 8)
NOAA still expects a G2 storm Friday morning, and a second solar blast may reach Earth Saturday night
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic watch (global) · impacts primarily poleward of 55° geomagnetic latitude
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center still has a G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm watch for Oct 9, when the CME from Oct 6 arrives: forecast Kp 5.00 (G1) for about 11 PM Thursday to 2 AM Friday ET and 5.67 (G2) for about 5 to 8 AM Friday ET. This is a moderate storm watch, not a severe storm forecast. SWPC’s first modeling of a second CME, launched Oct 7 after a C7.9 flare from Region 4549, shows an Earth-directed part arriving early Oct 11 UTC, Saturday night into Sunday ET; no watch has been issued for it. High-energy electrons have been above NOAA’s alert level since Oct 5, peaking at 11,911 pfu on Oct 7. An M6.7 flare at 11:48 AM ET Thursday caused an R2 (Moderate) radio blackout.
official data (NOAA SWPC ALTK05 2050 · WARK05 2267)
SWPC: G2 geomagnetic storm reached Oct 4 as coronal-hole stream lingers
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic alert (global) — impacts primarily poleward of 60° geomagnetic latitude
SWPC ALERT ALTK05 Serial 2050 (issued 1123 UTC / 7:23 AM EDT Oct 4): the geomagnetic K-index reached 5 at 1122 UTC (7:22 AM EDT) in the 0900–1200 UT period — NOAA Scale G1 (Minor). Warning WARK05 Serial 2267 expects K5 through 2100 UTC (5 PM EDT) today. SWPC attributes the storm to a coronal hole high-speed stream. The Oct 1 watch (WATA20 Serial 1128) that predicted G1 on Oct 4 verified; it was not cancelled. Effects mainly poleward of 60° geomagnetic latitude; aurora possible as far south as northern Michigan and Maine.
official data (NOAA SWPC)
SWPC watch: minor G1 geomagnetic storm predicted Oct 2 and again Oct 4
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic storm watch (global) — impacts mainly poleward of 60° geomagnetic latitude
SWPC WATA20 Serial 1128 (issued 1428 UTC / 10:28 AM ET Oct 1): highest storm level predicted G1 (Minor) on Oct 2, below G1 on Oct 3, G1 (Minor) on Oct 4 — and it supersedes all prior watches, including the Sep 29 watch that flagged Oct 2 only. SWPC’s 1230 UTC discussion ties Oct 2 to the 28 Sep CME; the watch gives no stated reason for Oct 4. Impacts mainly poleward of 60° geomagnetic latitude. ECDO-lane monitor; ECDO stays a labeled hypothesis.
official data (NOAA SWPC)
SWPC: long-duration C8.6 flare from Region 4535 launches a CME — weak glancing blow possible Oct 4
Sun · NOAA Region 4535 · N11W46 (SWPC SRS, valid 0000 UTC Sep 30)
SWPC Forecast Discussion (1230 UTC Sep 30): Region 4535 (beta-gamma) produced the period’s largest flare, a long-duration C8.6/1f peaking 0246 UTC Sep 30, with a Type II sweep (~523 km/s), a Type IV burst and a CME first seen in LASCO C2 at 0312 UTC. Preliminary modeling: weak glancing blow near Earth on Oct 4, analysis ongoing. Separate from the Oct 2 G1 watch. First Sun-disk pin.
official data
SWPC: G1 geomagnetic storm likely Oct 2 from a glancing CME
NOAA SWPC geomagnetic forecast product (global Kp outlook)
SWPC 3-Day Forecast issued 2026 Sep 30 0030 UTC: greatest expected Kp 4.67 (G1) for Sep 30–Oct 2 · G1 (Minor) likely Oct 2 from glancing effects of a CME that left the Sun Sep 28 · observed Kp max 2 · S1+ 1% · R1–R2 10%. ECDO-lane monitor; ECDO stays a labeled hypothesis.
Every note in this lane
27 notes, newest first. Notes leave the homepage after about 48 hours; they stay here and in the archive.
- SWPC keeps a K4 geomagnetic warning running for a second day; no storm in progress
- NOAA still expects a G2 storm Friday morning, and a second solar blast may reach Earth Saturday night
- SWPC: G2 geomagnetic storm reached Oct 4 as coronal-hole stream lingers
- SWPC watch: minor G1 geomagnetic storm predicted Oct 2 and again Oct 4
- SWPC: long-duration C8.6 flare from Region 4535 launches a CME, weak glancing blow possible Oct 4
- SWPC: G1 geomagnetic storm likely Oct 2 from a glancing CME
- SWPC: G1 geomagnetic storm likely Sep 24 as coronal-hole wind arrives
- South Atlantic Anomaly radiation briefly spills past its usual edges, Nature paper says
- Science: North Korea’s last nuclear test still wakes Mount Mantap faults
- G2 watch afternoon: peak slots still on the 1230Z table, observed K still quiet-to-unsettled into 20Z
- G2 watch day so far: forecast said moderate storm, observed K stayed quiet-to-unsettled
- SWPC raises a G2 magnetic-storm watch for Sep 9 as CME debris meets a solar wind stream
- Sun spat a radiation burst at Earth: storm magnets still quiet
- More solar debris may brush Earth early next week: no big magnetic storm called
- SWPC: Region 4524 M1.2 / R1, geomag quiet; see live HUD
- USGS reports M6.3 Aleutians quake SSW of Nikolski: NTWC: no tsunami
- Kīlauea ground keeps swelling: next eruption window still next week
- USGS reports M6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands region
- HVO sets Kīlauea episode 55 window for Sep 7–12 as UWD reaches +5.4 µrad
- Kīlauea pause drags: UWD tilt only +3.5 µrad since episode 54
- USGS: M5.6 quake rocks North Maluku seas off Maba
- HVO: Kīlauea pause continues; summit tilt slows after episode 54
- IERS pole still drifting: x=0.211445″, y=0.339610″, wobble, not a reversal
- ESA: South Atlantic magnetic weak spot grows by nearly half of Europe since 2014
- GOES-19 electrons smash 1,000 pfu (max 1,264): radiation-belt alert, not a pole flip
- USGS: M5.8 quake hits Kermadec Islands off New Zealand
- IERS: Earth's pole still wandering, Chandler/annual wobble measured, not a reversal