Climate / Earth
Climate and Earth-system monitoring from named official products. Snapshot values are dated and sourced. Nothing here is a forecast.
Snapshot
- Alert
- El Niño Advisory
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026
- July Niño-3.4
- +1.4°C
- Outlook
- Greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 (CPC language)
- Next discussion
- Sep 10, 2026
- Source
- NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Notes
official data
WHO: DRC Ebola passes 6,000 cases and 3,000 deaths — second-largest on record
WHO DG 2 Sep: DRC Ebola is already the second-largest on record and the fastest-moving WHO has seen; epidemic passed 6,000 reported cases and reached 3,000 deaths.
official data
Lowell still Cat 4 at 130 mph — track turns toward Hawaii late Monday
Central Pacific south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii
CPHC/NHC Hurricane Lowell Adv./Disc. 31, 5:00 PM HST Thu Sep 3, 2026 (EP122026): center 13.5°N, 158.9°W (~495 mi SSW of Hilo); 115 kt / 130 mph; ~943 mb after Hurricane Hunter data; W at 9 mph. Track brings center near or just west of westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday–early Tuesday, still at or near major-hurricane strength. No coastal watches yet; life-threatening surf/rips for several days.
official data
Edouard final advisory — last WPC bulletin; East Texas flood watches hold
Dallas / East Texas, United States
WPC Remnants of Edouard Advisory Number 12 (AL052026), 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 3, 2026 — last public advisory. Remnants near 32.5°N, 96.5°W (~40 mi SE of Dallas); 25 mph; 1012 mb; WNW at 5 mph. Center forecast dissipated by 03/1800Z. Flood Watches remain across much of east Texas; path totals 5–10 inches, max up to 22 inches; additional flash flooding possible.
official data
CPC week-2 hazards: heat plus ROD expands to Kentucky/Tennessee; monsoon rain risk
Southern Plains / Lower Mississippi Valley, United States
NWS CPC U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook issued 3:00 PM EDT Sep 3, 2026 (forecaster Ryan Bolt); valid Fri Sep 11–Thu Sep 17. Slight risk of extreme heat across Great Plains through Southeast Fri–Sat Sep 11–12. Slight risk of heavy precipitation Four Corners/Great Basin Fri–Sun Sep 11–13. Rapid Onset Drought risk for Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys — western Kentucky and Tennessee added today. Written OFF board this cycle.
official data
Hurricane hunters put Lowell at Cat 4 / 155 mph — Hawaii monitoring continues
Central Pacific south of Hilo, Hawaii
CPHC/NHC Hurricane Lowell Adv. 27, 5:00 PM HST Wed Sep 2, 2026 (EP122026): center 13.3°N, 155.2°W (~440 mi S of Hilo); 155 mph; 933 mb from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft; W at 10 mph. Category 4 after same-day satellite Cat-5 peak (Adv. 26). Major hurricane for several more days; Hawaii swells/life-threatening surf; long-range track uncertainty — too soon for impact call.
official data
Edouard now remnants — heavy rain into flooded East Texas through Thursday
Tyler / East Texas, United States
WPC Remnants of Edouard Adv. 11 (AL052026), 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 2, 2026: near 32.2°N, 95.7°W (~20 mi SW of Tyler); 25 mph; NW at 6 mph; 1011 mb. Dissipation Thursday. Flood Watches remain. Rain 5–10 in, max to 22 in inland; additional flash flooding and isolated moderate–major river flooding likely into Thursday.
official data
TD Edouard inland — significant flash flooding across East Texas
Lufkin / East Texas Piney Woods, United States
WPC Public Advisory 9 (AL052026), 10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 2, 2026: Tropical Depression Edouard near 31.3°N, 95.0°W (~40 mi WNW of Lufkin); 35 mph; NNW at 5 mph; 1004 mb. NHC final advisory issued; WPC continues updates. Rainfall 5–10 inches, max to 20 inches inland; significant flash flooding increasingly likely over the Piney Woods.
official data
Lowell hits 155 mph — Cat 4, possible Cat 5; Hawaii swells
Central Pacific SSE of Hilo, Hawaii
CPHC/NHC Hurricane Lowell Advisory 25, 5:00 AM HST Wed Sep 2, 2026 (EP122026): center near 13.4°N, 153.2°W (~455 mi SSE of Hilo); 155 mph; 932 mb; W at 10 mph. Category 4; further strengthening possible to Cat 5 later today or tonight. No coastal watches; swells likely to affect Hawaiian Islands beginning today with life-threatening surf and rip currents.
official data
Karina holds Cat 4 at 145 mph — open East Pacific
Eastern North Pacific east of Hawaii
NHC Hurricane Karina Advisory 25, 5:00 AM HST Wed Sep 2, 2026 (EP112026): eye near 18.8°N, 132.8°W (~1455 mi E of Hilo); 145 mph; 940 mb; WNW at 10 mph. Category 4; some intensity fluctuations today then slow weakening; likely to remain a powerful hurricane the next couple of days. No coastal watches; hazards affecting land: none.
official data
NASA EO: three-quarters of Puerto Rico in drought — 44% extreme
Puerto Rico, United States
NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day for Sep 2, 2026: as of the Aug 25, 2026 U.S. Drought Monitor, three-quarters of Puerto Rico was in at least moderate drought and extreme drought covered 44% of the territory. Three months earlier none of Puerto Rico was in drought. Governor declared emergency in late July; U.S. drought disaster declaration for more than two dozen cities and towns in late August.
official data
Nepal floods: 1,000+ recovered, 3,900 missing — UN flash appeal Friday
Bidur / Nuwakot District, Nepal
UN Spokesperson daily briefing 1 Sep 2026: Nepal flash-flood response enters a new phase — authorities recovered more than 1,000 bodies; 3,900 remain unaccounted for; nearly 12,000 rescued. WFP, UNICEF, UNDP figures cited; govt and RC Lila Pieters Yahia agreed to launch a 4-month Humanitarian Flash Appeal on Friday. Place: Bidur / Nuwakot.
official data
CPC week-2: moderate heat risk + rapid-onset drought watch
Southern Plains / Lower Mississippi Valley, United States
NWS CPC U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook issued 300 PM EDT Sep 1, 2026 (valid Wed Sep 9–Tue Sep 15): moderate extreme-heat risk Southern Plains / Lower–Middle Mississippi Valley on Sep 9; slight heat risk broader Southern Tier Sep 9–12; Rapid Onset Drought risk persists Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.
official data
TS Edouard center over Beaumont — 45 mph, flood bands linger
Beaumont, Texas, United States
NHC Intermediate Advisory 6A (AL052026) / NWS Houston HLS: Tropical Storm Edouard’s center over the Beaumont metro at 30.2°N 94.2°W; 45 mph; NW 305° at 7 mph; tropical-storm-force winds out to 25 miles. Watches/warnings canceled; rainbands and flash-flood potential continue.
official data
Petermann ice island survives Joe Island hit — Landsat 9, Aug 23–24
Joe Island (Joe Ø), Petermann Fjord / Nares Strait, northwest Greenland
NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day for Sep 1, 2026: Petermann Glacier ice island (~76 km² at Aug 4 calving) rammed Joe Island (Joe Ø) in Nares Strait and pivoted past without further fragmentation in Landsat 9 OLI scenes Aug 23–24. Largest Arctic glacier calving since 2020; Petermann’s largest since 2012 (130 km²).
official data
CPC rewrites September: heat shifts east, West cools
Central Great Plains, United States
NWS CPC Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook issued 3:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 31, 2026 updates the Sep 2026 30-day outlook: western CONUS cooler from early-month troughing; above-normal heat shifted east to central U.S., Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic. Highest odds over central Great Plains. Forecaster Jon Gottschalck.
official data
CPC week-2: 105°F heat and rapid-onset drought still stalking the Plains
Central and Southern Plains, United States
CPC’s Week-2 Hazards Outlook issued 3:00 PM EDT Aug 31, 2026 keeps a moderate extreme-heat risk over the Central and Southern Plains and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley for Sep 8–9, plus Rapid Onset Drought risk. Official outlook, not a drought map invented here.
official data
Borneo choked in smoke — NOAA-20 VIIRS spies Kalimantan blaze
Central and Western Kalimantan, Borneo, Indonesia
NASA Earthdata Worldview Image of the Week (Aug 31, 2026): wildland fires across Indonesia with poor air quality. VIIRS on NOAA-20 acquired Aug 28 imagery of Central and Western Kalimantan — gray smoke plumes blowing northwest, with active-fire and aerosol-index overlays.
official data
Pasterze, Austria’s largest glacier, hangs on one icefall — Landsat 9, 15 Aug
Pasterze Glacier, Hohe Tauern, Austria
NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day for 31 Aug 2026 compares Landsat 5 (22 Aug 1985) with Landsat 9 (15 Aug 2026): only the Hufeisenbruch icefall still connects Pasterze’s upper and lower ice. University of Graz: icefall width from nearly 900 m (3,000 ft) in 1998 to 120 m (390 ft) in 2025.
official data
M 5.5 north of Ruteng rattles Flores — USGS PAGER still green
44 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
USGS event us7000td2z is a reviewed magnitude 5.5 earthquake 44 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia, origin 31 Aug 2026, 4:03 AM EDT. PAGER fatality alert green. Tsunami flag 0. ShakeMap max MMI about 6.4.
official data
USGS: M 6.0 north of Caluula, Somalia — major quake, PAGER still green, tsunami flag 0
145 km N of Caluula, Somalia
USGS event us7000tcf3 is a reviewed magnitude 6.0 earthquake at 13.2654°N, 50.5425°E. PAGER fatality alert is green — the lowest level. Tsunami flag 0.
official data
Rare Atacama snow runs Andes to Pacific — Landsat 8/9 and Terra, Aug 2026
Chajnantor plateau / ALMA, Atacama, Chile
NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day for 27 Aug 2026: back-to-back August storms put snow on the Atacama from the Andes toward the Pacific. Landsat 8/9 show Chajnantor/ALMA on 6 Aug vs 14 Aug; Terra MODIS on 19 Aug shows snow across the hyper-arid core to near the coast south of Antofagasta.
official data
Glacier above Kodāri collapses into debris flow — USGS: landslide, not an earthquake
55 km NW of Kodāri, Nepal
USGS event us7000tbwb is typed landslide, not earthquake: reviewed analysis attributes the seismic energy to a glacial collapse and debris flow near Kodāri, Nepal.
official data
El Niño Advisory: Niño-3.4 at +1.4°C — >90% chance of a very strong fall–winter
Niño-3.4 monitoring region, equatorial Pacific
CPC’s 13 August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issues an El Niño Advisory: El Niño is strengthening, with greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27.
official data
20-year subpolar Atlantic overturning array finds no significant trend
Labrador Sea, 53°N SCOTIA/OSNAP western boundary
Fox et al., Ocean Science, 22, 1439–1456, 2026 (published 8 May 2026): SCOTIA extends subpolar AMOC to 2004–2024 and finds no statistically significant trend (0.42 Sv/decade, 95% CI −0.39 to +1.22). Not a collapse-date paper.
Paper shelf
No papers listed yet.