official data
CPC week-2 hazards: heat plus ROD expands to Kentucky/Tennessee; monsoon rain risk
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center / NWS U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook issued at 3:00 PM EDT 3 September 2026 (forecaster Ryan Bolt) is valid Friday 11 September through Thursday 17 September 2026. It posts a slight risk of extreme heat across much of the Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, and the Southeast United States for Friday–Saturday 11–12 September. A slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for portions of the Four Corners and Great Basin Friday–Sunday 11–13 September, tied to Gulf of California / East Pacific tropical moisture and a West Coast trough. Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk covers portions of the Central and Southern Plains and the Middle and Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys. Western Kentucky and Tennessee were added to the ROD risk today after 20–40% of normal precipitation and 1–2 inch deficits over the past 30 days, with near/below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures expected the next two weeks. Caution near canyons and creek beds is noted; additional rainfall may hamper Grand Canyon flood recovery.
Key facts
- Product
- U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook; issued 3:00 PM EDT Sep 3, 2026; valid Fri Sep 11–Thu Sep 17; forecaster Ryan Bolt
- Extreme heat
- Slight risk Great Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Southeast — Fri–Sat Sep 11–12
- Heavy precipitation
- Slight risk Four Corners and Great Basin Fri–Sun Sep 11–13 (Gulf of California / East Pacific moisture + West Coast trough)
- Rapid Onset Drought
- Central/Southern Plains; Middle/Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, Ohio Valleys; western KY/TN added today
- KY/TN ROD basis
- 20–40% of normal precip and 1–2 inch deficits past 30 days; near/below-normal precip and above-normal temps next two weeks
An area of western Kentucky and Tennessee was added to the Rapid Onset Drought risk today.
NWS CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook, Sep 3, 2026
Note
Primary source preference: NWS CPC U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook issued 3 September 2026. Hazard categories and timing are CPC products. Doom Signals does not invent rainfall or temperature extremes beyond the outlook language.
This note is filed for the archive and machine-readable feed. It is intentionally OFF the Sep 3 PM homepage board to keep Earth-column slots for Lowell-adjacent storm updates, HVO, and the Nikolski quake.
- Product: CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook Sep 3, 2026
- Place pin: Southern Plains / Lower Mississippi Valley centroid
- Coords basis: estimated_centroid 32.5, −93.5
Why it matters
Sep 3 3 PM ET CPC product is two days newer than the Sep 1 board item: valid window shifted to Sep 11–17, ROD expanded into western KY/TN, and a monsoon heavy-precip slight risk posted for Four Corners/Great Basin. Written this cycle but held OFF the homepage board.
Sources
Official data. Not a forecast.