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SWPC: Region 4524 M1.2 / R1 — geomag quiet; see live HUD

Origin Lane: ecdoSun / Region 4524 (no Earth epicenter)

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Forecast Discussion issued 2026 Sep 05 0030 UTC states solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4524 (N12E53, Dso/beta) produced an impulsive M1.2/1n flare at 04/0753 UTC. The same period’s 3-Day Forecast states radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours; the largest was at Sep 04 2026 0753 UTC. Greater-than-2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,620 pfu at 04/1520 UTC; greater-than-10 MeV proton flux was at background. Geomagnetic field was quiet; 3-Day Forecast rationale: no G1 or greater geomagnetic storms expected through 07 Sep. Live GOES X-ray class = see live HUD (do not freeze this note’s M1.2 as live).

Product
NOAA SWPC Forecast Discussion + 3-Day Forecast · Issued 2026 Sep 05 0030 UTC
Flare
Region 4524 M1.2/1n at 04/0753 UTC (heliographic N12E53)
Radio blackouts
R1 levels observed past 24h; largest at Sep 04 2026 0753 UTC
Electron flux
>2 MeV high; peak 1,620 pfu at 04/1520 UTC
Geomagnetic
Quiet; no G1 or greater expected through 07 Sep (3-Day Forecast)
Live class
See live HUD — do not freeze M1.2 as current

Primary: NOAA/SWPC Forecast Discussion (Issued 2026 Sep 05 0030 UTC). Secondary: NOAA/SWPC 3-Day Forecast (same issue time). Products: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt and https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt.

This note freezes a dated official product for the board. Current GOES X-ray class belongs on the live HUD — do not treat the M1.2 figure as live.

What it is not: ECDO confirmation, micronova evidence, X-class flare, or geomagnetic storm. Not a terrestrial epicenter — Earth map pin omitted (heliographic Region 4524 only).

  • Source: NOAA SWPC Discussion + 3-Day Forecast, issued 05/0030Z
  • Flare: Region 4524 M1.2/1n at 04/0753 UTC
  • GEO: omitted — heliographic only, no Earth pin
  • Not X-class / not storm / not ECDO proof

Why it matters

Official same-evening R1 / M-class solar product for the Sep 4 ET board — space-weather pin on the ecdo rail. Not ECDO proof. Not an X-class breaking interrupt. CME Earth-arrival language in the Discussion remains “modeling analysis currently ongoing” — arrival times are not invented here.

Sources

Official data. Not a forecast. Live X-ray class → HUD.

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