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G2 watch afternoon: peak slots still on the 1230Z table — observed K still quiet-to-unsettled into 20Z

Origin Lane: ecdoNOAA SWPC Boulder, CO (agency product locus — no Earth epicenter)

NOAA SWPC’s midday 3-day reissue still penciled G1 then G2 for late Sep 9 UTC — while synoptic planetary K through 15 UT stayed ≤3.0 and 1-minute estimated K into ~20Z remained quiet-to-unsettled, short of the forecast peak window.

Agency product locus pin (NOAA SWPC Boulder ~40.02N, 105.27W) — not a storm epicenter. Source map
Forecast
3-Day / Discussion issued 1230 UTC Sep 9 — G1–G2 likely 09 Sep (CH HSS + CME 05–06 Sep)
Expected peak
Greatest expected 3-hr Kp 5.67 (G2) at 21–00 UT; G1 penciled 18–21 UT
Past-24h at issue
Greatest observed 3-hr Kp = 5 (G1)
Observed K Sep 9
Synoptic through 15 UT ≤3.0 (00/03/06/09/12/15 UT stamps) — quiet-to-unsettled
1-min estimated K
Into ~20:13Z still quiet-to-unsettled (mostly ≤~3.0) — see HUD for later
Flares
GOES window max C3.2 (~10:32Z) — not X1+
vs AM status
New 1230Z product; peak slots moved to evening UTC; observed extended through 15 UT / ~20Z
Live
Kp / G-scale → live SWPC HUD — do not freeze this note

Primary: NOAA/NWS SWPC 3-Day Forecast and Forecast Discussion issued 2026 Sep 09 1230 UTC, NOAA planetary K-index synoptic through 15 UT, SWPC 1-minute estimated planetary K into ~20:13 UTC, and GOES primary X-ray flares latest.

What it is not: ECDO proof; a micronova or pole-shift claim; inventing live Kp; an X-flare note (window max C-class); a re-ship of the midnight WATA30 announcement or the morning Adv-53-cycle SWPC status without the 1230Z / afternoon observed update; an S1 proton storm.

Why it matters

Afternoon watch-day status vs morning status and midnight WATA30 alone. Forecast vs observed is why gauges stay on the HUD. Geomagnetic storm scales are not ECDO, polar motion, or core–mantle proof.

Sources

Official data. Live values go to the HUD / source product.

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