official data
HVO: UWD peaks +7.8 µrad — episode 55 window still Sep 7–12
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Daily Update for Thursday, 3 September 2026 (9:02 AM HST / 19:02 UTC) reports Kīlauea is not erupting and the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption remains paused. Alert Level is ADVISORY; Aviation Color Code is YELLOW. As of the update, the Uēkahuna (UWD) tiltmeter measured a peak of 7.8 microradians of inflation relative to the end of lava fountaining episode 54, with about 2.5 microradians over the past 24 hours, then flat to very slightly deflationary since about 6:00 a.m. HST. Episode 54 deflation totaled 12.7 µrad; after about +4 µrad from September 1–3, weak deflation began this morning in a stepwise reinflation pattern. HVO reaffirms a forecast window of Monday, September 7, to Saturday, September 12, for potential onset of episode 55 fountains if inflation follows prior patterns. Crustal tilt at a named volcano is local deformation monitoring, not polar motion, and is not proof of ECDO (hypothesis, not proven).
Key facts
- Status
- Not erupting; Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption paused; ADVISORY / YELLOW
- UWD tilt
- Peak +7.8 µrad vs end of episode 54 (Aug 25); ~+2.5 µrad past 24 hours; flat/slightly deflationary since ~6:00 a.m. HST
- Episode 54 context
- Deflation totaled 12.7 µrad; after ~+4 µrad Sep 1–3, weak deflation began this morning
- Episode 55 window
- Monday Sep 7 to Saturday Sep 12 for potential onset of fountains if inflation follows prior patterns
- ECDO note
- Local crustal tilt ≠ polar motion; ECDO remains hypothesis, not proven
As of this update, the Uēkahuna (UWD) tiltmeter has measured a peak of 7.8 microradians of inflation relative to the end of lava fountaining episode 54, with about 2.5 over the past 24 hours.
USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Daily Update, Sep 3, 2026
Note
Primary source preference: USGS HVO Daily Update for 3 September 2026. Tilt figures and the episode-55 window are HVO products. Doom Signals does not invent eruption timing beyond that window language.
HVO tilt is local volcano deformation monitoring. It is not polar-motion data and does not prove Earth Core Dynamo Oscillation. ECDO remains a hypothesis, not proven science.
- Update: HVO Daily Update Thu Sep 3, 2026
- Place: Halemaʻumaʻu, Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi
- Official coords: 19.4211, −155.2869
Why it matters
Sep 3 daily advances the Sep 2 window note: UWD inflation now peaked at +7.8 µrad (+2.5 in 24h) versus prior +5.4, with morning flat/slight deflation while the Sep 7–12 episode-55 window is reaffirmed — still not ECDO proof.
Sources
Official data. Not a forecast.