official data
HVO sets Kīlauea episode 55 window for Sep 7–12 as UWD reaches +5.4 µrad
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Daily Update for Wednesday, 2 September 2026 (9:30 AM HST / 19:30 UTC) reports Kīlauea is not erupting and the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption remains paused. Alert Level is ADVISORY; Aviation Color Code is YELLOW. Summit reinflation has increased over the past day. The Uēkahuna (UWD) tiltmeter has measured 5.4 microradians of inflation relative to the end of lava fountaining episode 54 on August 25 — still low for nearly a week into the pause (episode 54 recorded 12.7 µrad of deflation). HVO now models a broad forecast window of Monday, September 7, to Saturday, September 12, for the potential onset of episode 55 fountains if inflation follows prior patterns. Brief north-vent flames overnight were tied to gas pistoning and tremor bursts; no shallow summit earthquakes were recorded in the past 24 hours; East and Southwest Rift Zones remain quiet. Crustal tilt at a named volcano is local deformation monitoring, not polar motion, and is not evidence of ECDO (hypothesis, not proven).
Key facts
- Status
- Kīlauea not erupting; Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption paused; ADVISORY / YELLOW
- UWD inflation
- +5.4 microradians since end of episode 54 (Aug 25); episode 54 deflation 12.7 µrad
- Forecast window
- Monday Sep 7 to Saturday Sep 12 for potential episode 55 onset if inflation follows prior patterns
- Other signals
- Brief north-vent flames overnight (gas pistoning/tremor); no shallow summit quakes past 24h; ERZ/SWRZ quiet
- ECDO note
- Crustal tilt ≠ polar motion; not evidence of ECDO (hypothesis, not proven)
A forecast window of September 7-12 is likely for the next fountain episode.
USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Daily Update, Sep 2, 2026
Note
Official product: USGS HVO Daily Update, 2 September 2026 (hans-public volcano 332010). Doom Signals does not invent microradian totals or eruption-forecast windows beyond HVO’s text.
ECDO (Earth Crust Displacement / related pole-shift hypotheses) remains a tracked hypothesis on this site, not proven science. Named-volcano crustal tilt is local deformation monitoring, not confirmation of that hypothesis.
- Primary: HVO daily update via hans-public/volcano/332010
- Place: Halemaʻumaʻu, Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi
- Official summit coords: 19.4211, −155.2869
Why it matters
Material step past the Sep 1 reinflation note: HVO replaces 'more data needed' with a concrete Sep 7–12 episode-55 window and a higher UWD total (+5.4 µrad), without treating volcano tilt as ECDO proof.
Sources
Official data. Not a forecast.